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While the West is debating which agentic protocol to use, China is already processing over 120 million AI payment transactions a week.
Riverty’s “Fintech 2040” report wrote a line I never dreamed I’d see: “Learn from China.”
It is something I’ve been writing since my book “Cashless,” but this is the first time I’ve seen it in a formal industry paper. Could we be making progress?
China is already deploying what the report calls “hidden” agents. These are AI systems that infer intent from behavior, execute purchases, trigger payments, and coordinate fulfillment without the consumer interacting. The user sets the rules. The agent runs the operation.
Two paths to watch
The report tracks two paths for agentic commerce in China.
Alibaba’s Qwen sits on top of Taobao, Alipay, Fliggy, and Amap. It doesn’t just recommend. It places orders, triggers payment through connected wallets, and coordinates pickup.
This is a traditional route to agentic commerce: Taobao = Amazon, Fliggy = travel site, Amap = Google Maps on steroids
I’ve used Qwen to shop on Alibaba. It’s good. I haven’t let it purchase for me, primarily because the Mandarin in the confirmation flow is too complicated for me to follow. But it’s genuinely useful for English searching of products described entirely in Mandarin.
Alipay reported 120 million AI payment transactions in a single week in February 2026
Alibaba described the Qwen upgrade as a shift from “AI that responds” to “AI that acts”
Ant Group launched an Alipay MCP server in April 2025, letting AI agents connect directly to payment services
ByteDance’s Douyin takes the second path, and it’s arguably more interesting because it comes from outside ecommerce. ByteDance starts with viewer attention and works toward the sale.
The platform already shapes what you want through short-video recommendations. Now, with its Doubao AI layer, it’s gaining the ability to execute purchases inside the same loop. The agent that shapes the desire also fulfills it.
↳ Doubao crossed 100 million daily active users during the 2026 Lunar New Year period
↳ ByteDance rolled out a Doubao-based voice assistant for finding content and booking tickets
↳ Douyin’s in-stream purchasing converts better than external checkout because every app transition kills momentum
Three lessons
China’s three lessons for the West.
First, AI becomes commercially powerful only when connected to executable service environments. Qwen is impressive not because it chats well but because it can act across Alibaba’s entire ecosystem.
Next, protocol layers are the new control points. Whoever defines the rules for how agents identify merchants, compare offers, and authorize payments controls future commerce.
The battleground for agents in the West is authorization, and the payment protocol wars are in full swing with dozens of entries. In China, authorization on the major platforms is a foregone conclusion.
Finally, merchants whose online presence doesn’t speak “machine language” will become invisible to the next generation of buying systems.
Advertising or not?
China’s agentic experience is not without peril and needs to be closely followed.
ByteDance’s ability to shape desire at scale shortens the distance and removes all inhibition. See enough videos, and you’ll buy.
The line between advertising and agentic manipulation is very fine and grey.
Sovereignty
Europe is stuck between Chinese and American agent infrastructure and should build its own sovereign interoperable alternative.
It has two paths: either a few integrated ecosystems from the US control everything, or interoperable systems let agents compete across open protocols.
The irony of running a sovereignty-protecting digital euro on top of American agentic protocols is too sad to even imagine.
China’s integrated digital payments ecosystem gives it an advantage with agents that can’t be matched in the West today.
The broad brushstrokes for the future of agents are the same, however, and ignore what is happening in China at your own risk.
I always say China is a decade ahead in digital payments. If you want to see the West’s future, look to China today.
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