AI Is Transformational Technology, But Be Wary Of The Hype
Believe in AI, but you're on your own in figuring out what is hype and what is not.
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The “Centre for Future Generations” just produced the best report I’ve ever seen examining “AI Hype,” which acknowledges both AI’s transformative potential and the real presence of hype.
I regularly write about AI hype. When I do, I see it as adding value by throwing cold water on some of the more outlandish claims made by consultants and big tech. Still, one person’s hype is another’s truth.
What is hype? Definitions vary: “a state of intense enthusiasm and attention directed at AI,” or a social phenomenon, as in “a state of anticipation generated through the circulation of promotion, resulting in a crisis of value.”
The definition that resonates with me and the one I go after most frequently is: “any claim or narrative about AI’s performance that lacks rigorous empirical or theoretical support.”
Acknowledging the AI hype does not mean that you do not believe in AI’s transformative potential. I certainly do, but I see AI hype as creating expectations that will go unfulfilled, which in turn creates a “crisis of value.”
The real question underlying all the hype is: “When will the transformative impacts of AI arrive? Do we have a couple decades to prepare, or rather a couple of years? ”
Sadly, there is no definitive answer for this. Experts can provide valuable insights by examining their views, but no one’s crystal ball is perfect. Whether the current near-vertical trajectory of GenAI development can hold depends on scaling laws, electricity use, data, and chips.
However, be aware that even experts can suffer from bias. “Their perspectives may be shaped by incentives to emphasise the promise of their work, which can attract investments or reinforce the importance of their field.”
So we're on our own and have to determine when AI will become transformative for our industry, given publications filled with hype and expert opinions that are often biased.
It's frustrating for us all!
What is clear is that it's not a question of whether AI is transformative technology, but when the transformation will take hold.
In the meantime, be on the lookout for hype, but don’t dismiss AI as “overhyped” in general.
👉 AI Impacts so far:
🔹 Economic:
The latest McKinsey Global Survey on AI from May 2024 found that a substantial fraction of organisations are already reporting material benefits from ‘generative AI’ use, both in terms of cost decreases and revenue growth in the business units deploying the technology. On average 39% of respondents report some cost reduction and 44% report revenue increases, across all organisational functions
🔹 Productivity:
One of the most often mentioned benefits of AI is its capacity to help workers increase their productivity. Recent general-purpose AI systems already provide substantial productivity gains, with claims of an average 25% productivity increase by Goldman Sachs.
🔹 Accelerating scientific discovery
Moreover, generative AI systems seem capable of accelerating scientific discovery by streamlining ideation and prioritisation workflows. For example, a 2024 study from MIT[110] found that material scientists assisted by AI systems “discover 44% more materials, resulting in a 39% increase in patent filings and a 17% rise in downstream product innovation.”
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