BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Dashboard: "Geopolitics is a "Persistant Market Risk"
Fintech doesn't exist in a vacuum.
BlackRock's risk dashboard is dedicated to global markets and always catches my eye, especially during these turbulent times.
BlackRock's risk indicator is still in the red and at an 18-month high, with a "major cyber attack," the number one risk, considered highly likely. Let's hope they're wrong.
For those who wonder why I bother with geopolitics, it's simple: fintech doesn't exist in a vacuum.
Fintech is increasingly a geopolitical tool, CBDCS are the obvious example, while AI is now a core issue in US-China tensions.
There is no escaping the connection!
👉TAKEAWAYS
BlackRock expects three themes to dominate the geopolitical landscape in 2024:
We see deeper fragmentation between competing geopolitical and economic blocs.
We see a more volatile and less predictable world order, as the number of violent conflicts reaches its highest level in 80 years.
We expect the rewiring of globalization to accelerate. In our view, these themes present risks and opportunities for investors across both geographies and sectors.
The top four risks are stunning: 1) Major cyber attack, 2) Major terror attack, 3) US-China strategic competition, 4) Global technology decoupling
👊STRAIGHT TALK👊
Most fascinating is how China-US fragmentation hits the number three and tech decoupling the number four spot on BlackRocks' dashboard.
Stunningly, China-US tensions rank higher than Gulf tensions, likely true when risk analysis is confined to market value impact.
BlackRock clearly shows us how important US-China relations are to the globe and why it is so important to achieve some thaw between these superpowers.
Even a small reduction in the risk measures between the two would have global consequences.
Thoughts.
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