Breakthrough: China's AI Models at 'Near Parity' With US
With the AI race a "tie," China's momentum will make a US win difficult.
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Stanford University’s 2025 AI Index Report is the world’s gold standard, and its declaration that US and Chinese AI models are at “near parity” is a real shocker.
AI experts know this gap has closed considerably, but Stanford's declaration is like a “stamp of approval” on their recent assessments of China’s breakthroughs.
Proclamations like Stanford’s are bound to shock Washington, D.C., which is already in a stupor with the new trade war. The last thing it needs is to know that China’s AI efforts have not been impeded and that its Silicon Valley advisors failed to analyse the speed of disruption.
At this time last year, Silicon Valley advisors like ex-Google CEO Eric Schimid assured Washington that the US had a two—to three-year advantage over China. To quote, the US “is way ahead of China.”
Compare this to the Stanford report, which now claims: "The race is tighter than ever, and no one has a clear lead.”
Not all the news is bad for the US. It still dominates in producing top AI models, but China is closing the performance gap. In 2024, U.S.-based institutions produced 40 notable AI models, compared to China’s 15 and Europe’s three.
While the U.S. maintains its lead in quantity, Chinese models have rapidly closed the quality gap. Performance differences on major benchmarks shrunk from double digits in 2023 to “near parity” in 2024.
China also leads in AI publications and patents, while the US leads in highly influential research.
The US also leads in AI investment. Last year, $109.1 billion was invested in the US—nearly 12 times China's $9.3 billion and 24 times the U.K.'s $4.5 billion.
Two things are clear to me after reading this report:
Washington, D.C., had some pretty terrible advice from its Silicon Valley advisors, who were clueless about the speed of China’s AI development.
The US is now tied in the AI race, and with China’s momentum and fast implementation skills, it does not bode well for the US to win.
👉China in the report:
🔹 China leads in AI research publication totals, while the United States leads in highly influential research. Over the past three years, U.S. institutions have contributed the most top-100-cited AI publications.
🔹 China leads in total AI patents, accounting for 69.7% of all grants, while South Korea and Luxembourg stand out as top AI patent producers on a per capita basis.
🔹 While North America maintains its leadership in organizations’ use of AI, Greater China demonstrated one of the most significant year-over-year growth rates, with a 27% increase in organizational AI use. Europe followed with a 23% increase.
🔹 China’s dominance in industrial robotics continues despite slight moderation. In 2023, China installed 276,300 industrial robots, six times more than Japan and 7.3 times more than the United States.
🔹 Regional differences persist regarding AI optimism. A large majority of people believe AI-powered products and services offer more benefits than drawbacks in countries like China (83%), Indonesia (80%), and Thailand (77%), while only a minority share this view in Canada (40%), the United States (39%), and the Netherlands (36%).
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