China Leading GenAI Patent Race by a Factor of Six, Says UN
Chip bans and sanctions cannot stop innovation.
Note the PDF does not have the sobering graphs found in the online version which can be found: HERE
According to the UN World Intellectual Property Organization’s (WIPO) “Patent Landscape Report,” between 2014-2023, more than 38,000 GenAI patents came out of China, six times more than those filed by inventors in the United States, which came in second place.
If that doesn’t shock Washington D.C. nothing will.
I agree with those who say patents aren’t everything and at least some of the Chinese patents are likely of low quality. The reality, however, is that it’s unlikely that Chinese patents are of lower quality than US patents by a factor of six.
Making matters worse, four of the top five organizations with the most GenAI patents in the world are all Chinese, with IBM in the US taking fifth place.
While no one would dare call IBM’s patents “junk,” the quality of China’s patents would also seem to have a noteworthy pedigree.
Only the most jaded would say that Chinese companies Tencent, PinAn, or Baidu, known globally for their technical prowess, are pumping out “junk” patents.
Two Narratives
This report leaves the two competing narratives for the AI race between China and the US without a clear winner.
In the first narrative, the US will cripple China’s AI efforts by banning and blocking the sale of AI chips and machinery for their production and access to GenAI software.
This, combined with former Google CEO Eric Schmidt's pronouncement that the US has a two-year lead in AI, a lifetime in the fast-paced tech industry, has the competition strongly in the US’s favor.
Schmidt boldly states, "If we do it right, we have a shot of actually dominating the world for the next 10 or 20 years."
The second narrative is unsurprisingly different. As shown by Huawei’s recently announced production of 5nm chips for its new phones, bans will only have a short-term impact. Huawei can be seen as a microcosm for China’s AI industry and overcame all that the US could throw at it.
Pitting one celebrity tech personality against another, Kai-Fu Lee, the author of AI Superpowers and now the CEO of a Chinese AI company, says that China is behind the US with a much smaller gap of six to nine months.
So, which narrative do you believe?
China’s AI patents are no joke; dismissing them as “junk” is a significant strategic error. While chip bans are already impacting China’s ability to provide AI services, it is irrational to think that this will continue forever.
China’s manufacturing prowess and innovation skills can never be underestimated, and I think Washinton is doing just that. It didn’t learn from its experience with Huawei and still believes China can’t innovate.
Meanwhile, the US’s lead in GenAI is real, and China will have a hard time catching up. The problem is that whose AI is best is less important than who implements it for the betterment of society.
China’s digital platforms are already rolling out GenAI services even if the GenAI isn’t as smart as the US’s. No one implements tech faster than China and no one in the AI discussion seems to talk about this.
In the end, GenAI doesn’t belong to the US or China; it belongs to humanity. We should hope that we all benefit from GenAI rather than adopt a” winner-take-all” Cold War mentality, as Schmidt displayed with his desire to dominate the world for 10-20 years.
I don’t think China or the US will take a decisive lead in AI. Both countries will play to their strengths, and neither will be able to dominate the other.
Instead of Schmidt’s 10-20 years of dominance, look for a very uncomfortable 10-20 years of precarious balance in which both countries try to gain an edge over the other with neither succeeding.
What do you think?
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