China Now Global Leader in 90% of Critical Tech
Over 20 years, China has traded places with the US, which once reigned supreme.
China and the United States have traded places in the past 20 years with China now the leader in 57 of 64 (89%) critical technologies.
Showing the enormous transition over the past 20 years, from 2003 to 2007, the US led in 60 of 64 technologies.
The US and China are essentially "trading places," which should concern Washington as China has made great strides that the US cannot undo.
The study was conducted by the government-backed Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), which cannot be accused of being a shill for the Chinese government.
ASPI's "Critical Technology Tracker provides a leading indicator of a country's research performance, strategic intent, and potential future science and technology capability."
👉TAKEAWAYS
🔹There is a stunning shift in research leadership over the past two decades towards large economies in the Indo-Pacific, led by China’s exceptional gains.
🔹China led in just three of 64 technologies in 2003–2007 but is now the lead country in 57 of 64 technologies in 2019–2023, increasing its lead from our rankings last year (2018–2022), where it was leading in 52 technologies.
🔹The US led in 60 of 64 technologies in the five years from 2003 to 2007, but in the most recent five years (2019–2023) is leading in seven.
🔹India is also emerging as a key centre of global research innovation and excellence, establishing its position as an S&T power.
🔹The US, the UK and a range of countries from Europe, Northeast Asia and the Middle East have maintained hard-won strengths in high-impact research in some key technology areas, despite the accelerated efforts of emerging S&T powers.
Research share across a range of AUKUS Pillar 2–relevant technologies
👊STRAIGHT TALK👊
How you want to focus on this story is up to you. The key story is either the decline of the US’s technological advantage or China’s outstanding rise.
Let’s start with the US. It is clear that the US has been unable to hold on to its historical advantage in technology over the past 20 years. Yes, the US still leads in some areas like quantum computing and vaccine and medical countermeasures, so all is not lost.
But gone is the US’s technological hegemony: “In the early to mid-2000s, the US was by far the dominant research power. Its performance between 2003 and 2007 saw it leading in research for 60 out of 64 technologies.”
Now turn to China which ASPI claims has “built up potential monopoly positions in scientific expertise and top performing institutions.” Most disconcerting is that “in the fields in which China overtook the US a decade or more ago, it has tended to build steady and unassailable leads.”
How did China do it? “China is catching up rapidly through an unsurpassed investment in its own S&T areas and top-performing institutions.”
With China and India rising, the US can no longer be relied on to be the go-to nation for tech innovation. This is a huge shift in how we perceive the global role of the US and Asia.
The bigger question that ASPI cannot answer is, what will happen to this lead in the next twenty years? ASPI hints at an answer by showing how tech transitions require around two decades to bear fruit.
This means that even if the US started a national technology push of the magnitude of the 1960s space race, it would take 20 years to catch up.
Do you see this push coming?
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