Stanford: 10 Great Emerging Technologies and a US Innovation Crisis
The US is no longer leading in global research as China ramps up innovation.
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Stanford’s emerging tech review is important because it identifies ten great technologies that will shape our future and explains how the China-US competition will not go away.
For those interested in AI, go straight to page 21.
Stanford says self-regulation for AI is the only way forward—is it?
This report will be read worldwide and fiercely advocates American innovation leadership, which is critical to the nation’s economy and security.
It claims that America’s innovation is at risk and that the US’s research universities are not producing innovation as expected due to a slowdown in government funding. While the private sector invests more, it can only pick up some slack.
The crisis is clear: China is beating the US in innovation.
For the first time, in 2024, the number of Chinese contributions surpassed those of the United States in the closely watched Nature Index, which tracks eighty-two of the world’s premier science journals.
The US is used to being number one, and the paper lays the foundations for a long-term technological race between the US and China.
Sadly, as collaboration between the two superpowers is deemed impossible, we all face a long-drawn-out tech cold war, slowing innovation globally. The cost of this competition will be measured by the cost of delaying innovations that could have impacted society far earlier with collaborative efforts.
The ten emerging technologies are Artificial Intelligence, Biotechnology and Synthetic Biology, Cryptography, Lasers, Materials Science, Neuroscience, Robotics, Semiconductors, Space, and Sustainable Energy Technologies.
What particularly fascinated me was the report's observations on national innovation and geopolitics, which showed how our innovation environment is changing quickly.
Meaningful Observations on Innovation
🔹 Increasing access:
There is a trend toward increasing access to new technologies worldwide. Even innovations that are US-born are unlikely to remain in the exclusive control of American actors for long periods.
🔹 Synergies:
The synergies between different technologies are large and growing. Advances in one technology domain often support advances in other technologies.
🔹 Speed of Change:
The speed of change is hard even for leading researchers to anticipate. Technology often progresses in fits and starts, with long-term incremental results followed by sudden breakthroughs.
🔹 US Government not the leader in R&D:
The US government is no longer the primary driver of technological innovation or funder of research and development. Historically, the US government funded and advocated for technological advances (including semiconductors, the Internet, and jet engines). Today, private-sector R&D investment is playing a much larger role, raising important concerns about how to ensure that US national interests are properly taken into account.
🔹 Innovation in democracies and autocracies
Technological innovation occurs in both democracies and autocracies, but different regime types enjoy different advantages and challenges. Democracies provide greater freedom for exploration, while authoritarian regimes can direct sustained funding and focus on the technologies they believe are most important.
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