Tech Trends for 2023; US losing the tech war with China? Emerging economies say yes to CBDC!
Even CFA's don't know what a CBDC is!
1. Tech trends for 2023
2. US losing the tech war with China?
3. Emerging economies say yes to CBDC
Today’s artwork: A return to the classics today with Gelb-Rot-Blau (Yellow-Red-Blue), by Wassily Kandinsky, 1925. I missed my classic art theme and thought it was time to return!
The basis of this painting lies in the balance between contradictory and complementary elements. To the left are geometric lines and luminous colors. To the right are sinuous forms and dark hues.
Today’s stories also share contradictory and complementary elements! Innovations that are anything but linear, a tech war that is hanging in the balance, and CBDCs that may complement them both?
I am proud to be the No. 4 global fintech influencer on the prestigious Onalytica influencer list. I got there by writing solid articles that people like you want to read.
This is the place if you want crystal clear, hype-free discussion on CBDCs, fintech, AI, crypto, and China’s tech scene.
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1. Tech trends for 2023
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Mckinsey tech trends for 2023 shows how our current world is like "The Flintstones."
Mckinsey shows just how much tech has the potential to change our world. While generative AI is in the news, many other technologies haven’t garnered the headline but are equally capable of generating large-scale disruption.
👉 McKinsey’s way of putting these 15 disruptors into perspective is outstanding:
“Organizations shouldn’t focus too heavily on the trends that are garnering the most attention. ....Instead, companies seeking longer-term growth should focus on a portfolio-oriented investment across the tech trends most important to their business.”
👉 Tech is useless without people who know how to implement it, and McKinsey nicely shows how big a problem this already is:
“A lack of talent is a top issue constraining growth. ....Our survey of 3.5 million job postings in these tech trends found that many of the skills in greatest demand have less than half as many qualified practitioners per posting as the global average.”
👉 Of the 15 disruptive techs in the report, it was “Edge computing” that captured my imagination:
“Edge computing provides flexibility for organizations to process data closer to their origins faster (ultra-low latency) and achieve data sovereignty and enhanced data privacy as compared with cloud.”
What piqued my interest was the potential for greater data sovereignty. We already see pushback to cross-border data flows in the EU, and this trend will increase as nations increasingly view data as their new "private" oil.
Edge computing is needed now, and a recent study found that approximately 33% of respondents had repatriated from the cloud to a data center or co-location facility.
Edge will have a big future with “400 use cases across industries identified and projected double-digit growth globally over the next five years.
Thoughts?
👉TAKEAWAYS:
—Tech will make our world look like “The Flintstones” in about 10 years.
—The good news is that much of this tech will bring new employment, unlike AI's dire predictions.
—Which ones will succeed is irrelevant. If only half make it, our world will be very different.
—One thing to watch is the geopolitical disruption these techs will bring. No one nation can rule them all.
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2. US losing the tech war with China?
Read: here
Why America is losing the tech war with China, and digital yuan will play a part.
In this insightful article, David Goldman makes it clear that there is far more at stake in the US-China tech war than whose AI is better.
Whether we talk about the metaverse, Web3, 5G, AI, and of course, chips, you’ll find articles in the Chinese press about how they will be used to enhance production.
“Western media, for the most part, has ignored a remarkable array of Chinese pilot products in industrial automation, executed primarily by #Huawei.”
True because the US is critically behind in 4IR development:
“China’s plan to assert leadership in the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR)—the application of AI to production, logistics, and services—appears to be on track. ......American manufacturers have shown little commitment to Fourth Industrial Revolution technology.”
The author does a great job showing how the US focuses on consumer-oriented big tech while China uses tech to support production and logistics.
Which is more important?
👉 Digital yuan and 4IR:
Not mentioned in the article is that even the digital yuan is seen as a means of increasing production rather than buying coffee.
In my book Cashless I talked about the greater ecosystem that was being built surrounding the digital yuan. Two news stories show how it’s being built:
→First Chinese digital yuan transactions have surged 18 times in just under a year, with transactions valued at US$250bn. That should silence critics of the trials. Hidden in this data and not reported, many payments were large-scale industrial use.
→Second, Shanghai plans to set up blockchain-based platforms using the digital yuan to support the production, supply, and trading of commodities and develop industrial e-commerce platforms.
The digital yuan is an integral part of China's 4IR strategy, and the US doesn't see it.
Yet.
👉TAKEAWAYS:
—Suppressing China through blocks and bans of technology has little impact.
—China is integrating whatever tech it has in support of production and 4IR strategy.
—To keep up the US must increase R&D and promote industrial policy, as it did in the 1960’s.
—Digital yuan ecosystems spanning commerce and logistics are already being built in support of production.
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3. Emerging economies say yes to CBDCS
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CFA Survey shows Emerging Markets say YES to CBDC while Developed Markets are UNDECIDED.
The CFA Institute did a great survey of its members on CBDC to determine the “demand side” of the CBDC equation. Do financial professionals want them?
So you'd think CFAs, true financial professionals would probably know what a CBDC is right? Not so fast! The survey showed that only 13% of respondents had a strong understanding of CBDC!
Let’s bullet a few of the results, my comments in green:
✅ The most interesting result of this survey was the divide between emerging (EM) and developed markets (DM) respondents!
👉 Compare these results (EM/DM): Should launch a CBDC:61/37%. I would use a CBDC: 67/43%. CBDC would enhance financial inclusion: 55/28%.
✅ Emerging markets with less developed financial infrastructure look forward to CBDCs while developed markets shrug and say who needs them.
👉 Overall survey results. The good: 42% believe central banks should launch CBDCs. The bad: 34% say no. The ugly: 24% had no opinion.
✅ So there’s no majority because 24% still have no opinion. The jury is out!
👉 Age also played a key role! Under 40’s posting the highest numbers for agreeing to launch and use CBDCs.
✅ Do you smell the generational divide? I certainly do. With so many young people familiar with crypto, they don’t fear CBDC.
👉 China and India won the competition for supporting CBDC with 70 and 66%, respectively. MENA and emerging markets took 3rd and 4th place with 63 & 61% respectively
✅ Unsurprisingly, the two countries with well-developed CBDC programs support CBDC! Having a CBDC program makes a difference look at UK, EU, and US, with 46, 45, and a paltry 31%!
👉 One DEFINITIVE result from the survey was that 55% said CBDCs and Crypto will coexist, with 25% saying they are incompatible and 20% with no opinion.
✅ Once again, it is the under 40’s who believe this strongest! This group is crypto-aware, making them more willing to use both!
Thoughts?
🔺Please leave a comment, repost♻️ and like! One comment equals 10 likes and it takes only 3 reader comments to boost this post 50%.
👉TAKEAWAYS:
—The jury is out! Yes, CBDCs have support, but it is heavily weighted toward emerging markets!
—Younger than 40 are more CBDC and crypto-friendly.
—The top motivators for CBDC are payment efficiency and financial inclusion.
—The LOWEST level of support for CBDC was found in the US!
And this weeks top three tweets (now X’s?) in the news:
Cross-border payments are expensive, slow, and opaque, in part due to lack of trust! So the BIS wants "Trust bridges" and tokenization! NEW BIS report: here
Instant payments finally reach America with #FedNow. Banks hate it because it kills bank payment revenue! US is way behind graph:
A great read that explains why #FedNow is new and different.
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Rich Turrin is the international best-selling author of "Cashless - China's Digital Currency Revolution" and "Innovation Lab Excellence." He is number 4 on Onalytica's prestigious Top 50 Fintech Influencer list and an award-winning executive previously heading fintech teams at IBM following a twenty-year career in investment banking. Living in Shanghai for the last decade, Rich experienced China going cashless first-hand. Rich is an independent consultant whose views on China's astounding fintech developments are widely sought by international media and private clients.
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Cashless: HERE
Innovation Lab Excellence: HERE
Hey Rich Turrin, your article on CBDCs and the tech trends for 2023 is fantastic! I can see how these innovations will shape the future. The potential of Edge computing for data sovereignty is especially intriguing. Thanks for the insightful read!