Tipping Points Pose A Grave Threat to Humanity As Does the Solution
Are you ready to go fossil fuel-free by 2050?
The “Global Tipping Points Report 2023” released at Dubai's COP28 UN climate summit is a scary read! If you had difficulty sleeping before reading this report, you most definitely won’t sleep after reading it
The report warns that climate change “tipping points” will bring rapid change and present a grave threat to humanity. The recommendation is to phase out fossil fuel emissions globally by 2050! This, too, will have a cost measured in lives.
👉TEN KEY MESSAGES:
Climate change and nature loss could soon cause tipping points in the natural world.
These tipping points pose threats of a magnitude never before faced by humanity.
The effects of tipping points will be transmitted and amplified throughout our globalized world.
Stopping these threats is possible but requires urgent global action.
Even with urgent global action, some Earth system tipping points may be unavoidable.
Positive tipping points can accelerate a transformation towards sustainability.
One positive tipping point can trigger others, creating a domino effect of change.
Triggering positive tipping points requires coordinated action that considers equity and justice.
We need a deeper understanding of tipping points – but without delaying action.
Positive tipping points can create a powerful counter-effect to the risk of Earth system tipping points cascading out of control.
👉THE RECOMMENDATIONS:
Phase out fossil fuels and land use emissions now
Fossil fuel emissions should be phased out worldwide before 2050
Strengthen Adaptation and Loss-and-Damage Governance
Tipping point impacts will be felt worst by the most vulnerable communities within and between nations, with knock-on impacts for global inequality, the stability of the world economy, and geopolitics.
Tipping Points in NDCs and the Global Stocktake
“Nationally Determined Contributions” should include national-scale systemic assessments of exposure to tipping point risks and measures contributing to their prevention.
👊STRAIGHT TALK👊
This was a scary report to read, and it was designed to shock people into action. On that level, I think it does a good job.
Tipping points are real and will likely have devastating consequences for the most vulnerable.
That said, the solution proposed is so impossible that it’s hard to see how it can be implemented. Phasing out fossil fuel emissions by 2050 would seem an impossible task, barring aliens landing and giving humanity boundless clean energy.
The report's proposal of radical solutions is expected, given the severity of humanity's tipping points. It is, however, hard to think that they will get much buy-in from a population that doesn’t want to give up the gains of the modern world.
The recommendation is so severe that the president of Cop28, Sultan Al Jaber, from the UAE, had this priceless comment:
'Please help me, show me the roadmap for a phase-out of fossil fuel that will allow for sustainable socioeconomic development, unless you want to take the world back into caves.'
Sultan Al Jaber is head of the UAE’s state oil company Adnoc, and his comments created a firestorm with even Greta Thunberg commenting. He also said: 'There is no science out there, or no scenario out there, that says that the phase-out of fossil fuel is what's going to achieve 1.5C.'
The problem is that his “taking the world back to the caves” comment is likely correct. While we all want clean energy alternatives, what life can you envision if you were to go fossil fuel-free by 2050?
So, this report leaves me unsettled. I believe in the tipping points, but the solution will have a real death toll as well. The calculus between the two is mind-boggling.
The fears balance out, and once again, nothing happens.
Tell me what I’m missing.
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