Responsible AI in Finance🤖 AI Can't save fintech😱 Digital euro in 2026💥 BigTech gunning for banks🔫 Top tech for 2024🔝
China's Belt and Road Initiative turns 10! 🎂
1. Responsible AI in Finance
2. AI Cannot Save Fintech Valuations: UBS report counters hype.
3. Digital Euro Progress: Launch in 2026?
4. Big Tech is Gunning for Banks!
5. Gartner’s Top Ten Tech Trends for 2024!
6. China’s BRI turns 10!
Today’s art: Light Drawing 1949, Pablo Picasso
Pablo Picasso turned his hand to a huge variety of different mediums to create his revolutionary artworks. But, in 1949, a young Albanian-American photography prodigy introduced him to an entirely new one: light.
Picasso was already almost 70 and famous for being irritable! When approached by Gjon Mili to paint with light he was not convinced, but he tried! LIFE magazine reported: “Picasso gave Mili 15 minutes to try one experiment. He was so fascinated by the result that he posed for five sessions, projecting 30 drawings of centaurs, bulls, Greek profiles and his signature.”
The point is that Picasso was no push-over! His reaction to “trying new technology” was to give it a mere 15 minutes! But that’s all it took! The collaborative effort between the artists was tremendously successful.
There are many Picassos out there who, despite being irritable, should give AI, the digital euro, and many other new techs their 15 minutes! Who knows they may like them!
1. Responsible AI in Finance
I don’t trust banks to determine ethical standards for GenAI, and you shouldn’t either, see why.
Someone should tell Accenture that without an independent audit, no one will believe banks’ claims that their retail GenAIs are acting responsibly!
Banks saying an AI is ethical "because we say so" doesn't cut it. Moreover, banks should want an audit as an insurance policy.
How this escaped Accenture’s review of GenAI ethics, in an otherwise good report astounds me.
👉TAKEAWAYS: See what Accenture missed in 6
Embracing a watershed moment with GenAI:
It’s no longer a question of what GenAI can do, but what can’t it?
GenAI is not a panacea:
Should you do it? Even if legal, is it ethical?
Adopt a risk-based approach to balance between innovation and potential harm
-Risks to consider from inputs: harmful or biased training data, data ownership, not inclusive, language support
-Risks to consider from outputs: lack of trust, misinformation, unclear accountability, employment disruption
Harmonising AI governance frameworks will be challenging:
Few major jurisdictions have proposed or implemented principles that govern GenAI.
Creating an environment that facilitates the responsible deployment of GenAI involves more than just the technical experts
For firms in the financial services industry, founded as they are on trust, GenAI that is imbued with the wrong values could erode this trust.
💥 Here’s what Accenture missed!💥
Audit your AI just as you do your accounts:
You cannot call the IT department and ask if your GenAI system is operating ethically. How would they know? Independent audits are required to ensure that an AI operating ethically transcends operating legally and strengthens trust.
👊STRAIGHT TALK👊
Accenture’s report on GenAI ethics give banks “carte blanche” to determine what is ethical and self-regulate GenAI.
I’m not at all convinced this is a reasonable expectation, and you shouldn’t be either.
The concept that banks are going to roll out GenAI systems that are legal is one thing, that they are ethical and are in the best interests of clients is another.
Accenture doesn’t seem to understand that GenAI systems facing retail clients will need a better ethical standard than “because we say so.”
Client-facing systems MUST be subject to independent audit, if for no other reason than that banks will need cover if something goes wrong.
Consider a GenAI audit “cheap insurance” and that Accenture missed this astounds me. This would be a great business for Accenture right?
For those who think that this could never happen, I will say two words: Wells Fargo!
Wells institutionalized unethical behavior by employees, so why not with a GenAI system?
PwC, an audit company, gets it:
“Auditing will be a key governance mechanism to confirm that AI systems are designed and deployed in line with a company’s goals."
How much do you trust your bank?
2. AI Cannot Save Fintech Valuations: UBS report counters hype.
Investors beware, GenAI is taking the tech world by storm, but AI alone is not a savior for faltering tech or fintech stocks!
Generative AI is causing a tech stock rally, and life may even be returning to the moribund fintech market. The tech industry’s mantra that “all roads lead to AI” may be paying off.
Still, these are early days, and UBS has a message for investors that counters AI hype. AI alone will not be a savior for everyone, particularly fintech!
👉TAKEAWAYS:
We don’t think AI is a bubble as we see significant growth opportunities. There are strong comparisons, in our view, with the recent smart device opportunity that can provide investors with a very good blueprint on understanding the investment opportunity.
We believe risk-reward is better in software and internet as companies with structural growth outlook and growth at a reasonable premium.
The tech sector should emerge as the fastest-growing segment within global equities in 2024.
Anti-trust and data privacy regulations will likely impact tech players, and geopolitics are a real threat to AI. Witness Biden’s new chip bans just hammering Nvidia’s stock price!
Can AI revive global Fintech?
🔥 We expect the fintech industry to resume its above-average growth starting in 2H23. As a result, we still project fintech to report double-digit growth through the end of the decade. For now, we see a medium-level probability of a big turnaround in the global fintech market over the next 6–12 months. 🔥
👊STRAIGHT TALK👊
Generative AI caused a powerful 25-30% rise in the tech sector in equity markets this year.
For many in Fintech still reeling from the sector's crash, however, there is a tendency to get caught in the hype and believe that AI’s rising tide will float all boats.
AI won’t, and it can't.
UBS’s comments on Fintech markets are poignant:
“Tactically, we think some of the following catalysts are needed for the fintech industry to stage a turnaround:
a) a margin rebound as we believe fintech is one of the few tech industries where margins did not expand much over the past few quarters due to a lack of significant restructuring or self-help efforts;
b) a potential acceleration in e-commerce volumes, which can buoy online payments (one of the largest fintech segments);
c) normalizing interest rates coupled with a pickup in fintech funding;
d) a meaningful adoption of generative AI in the fintech industry, driving strong cost efficiencies and an expansion of the addressable market; and
e) less intense competition and favorable regulations, particularly in emerging markets.
AI is powerful, no doubt, but will not be fintech’s savior as it is only one component of many impacting valuations.
3. Digital Euro Progress: Launch in 2026?
💥Get ready for the Digital Euro launch in early 2026 as the ECB moves to “preparation phase.” 💥
The ECB is making fantastic progress on the Digital Euro and is now moving to a new two-year preparation phase (PP) for “testing and development.” We could see the digital euro in 2026!
Contrast the ECB’s embrace of CBDC, as a "public good" with the US Fed's for an amusing contrast!
👉TAKEAWAYS:
🔷 Digital euro PP to start following conclusion of the two-year investigation phase
🔷 PP will lay the foundations for a potential digital euro, with work to include finalizing the rulebook and selecting providers to develop the platform and infrastructure
🔷 The PP will pave the way for potential future decisions on issuing a digital euro.
🔷 The digital euro is a digital form of cash that could be used for all digital payments throughout the euro area.
🔷 It would be widely accessible, free for basic use, and available online and offline.
🔷🔥The ECB is FINALLY COMMITTING to OFFLINE use!🔥
🔷 It would offer the highest level of privacy and allow users to settle payments instantly in central bank money.
🔷 It could be used from person to person, at the point of sale, in e-commerce, and in government transactions. 🔥No digital payment instrument offers all these features. 🔥
👊STRAIGHT TALK👊
The ECB just gave us the most detailed description yet on the digital euro, and I like what I see!
But read this STUNNING statement on why the ECB will no longer rely on US payment providers Visa and MC:
“The growing trend towards digital payments has also entailed increased European dependency on foreign service providers. A digital euro would also address risks stemming from geopolitical tensions. [COVID and Russian war] has painfully demonstrated the risks of relying exclusively on external suppliers for basic needs.”
Now, a few new details:
Commercial digital euro holders will have zero holdings and keep money in banks to reduce bank disintermediation.
The Payment Service Provider (your bank or mobile operator) will provide payment authentication security, not the ECB!
Online and offline payments below a cap will get higher degrees of privacy. Likely anonymous.
The cap number was a key critique by the European Data Protection Board (EDPB), which wants this number.
The EDPB also wanted further details on the rules for ECB accessing the personal data of users held by PSPs.
The ECB does not have your personal data! PSPs do!
Users control access to all personal data!
4. Big Tech is Gunning for Banks!
Big Tech swings a double-edged sword in finance, one side helping and the other harming society. Read how!
The BIS focuses on the rise of big techs in finance and its implications and sees both risk and rewards with their incredible rise. Do the rewards outweigh the risks? Yes!
👉TAKEAWAYS: Risk ❌and reward ✅!
❌ Big techs generate a large stock of user data due to their business models, which may harm data privacy even though it allows them to offer a range of financial services.
❌ They can dominate markets: big tech credit growth in China outpaced traditional bank credit, with an average annual growth rate of 37% (2020-21), compared to banks at 13%!
✅ Despite big tech dominance in China they haven’t caused destabilizing financial stress to banks. Your bank's cries of imminent death at the hands of big tech are bunk!
✅ Big techs' networks, access to non-traditional data, and use of machine learning can enhance financial inclusion, especially among the unbanked!
❌ Big techs' provision of financial services can lead to regulatory challenges like ▪️ market dominance, ▪️ price discrimination, ▪️ algorithmic discrimination, and ▪️ threats to user privacy.
✅ Public policy needs a new and holistic regulatory approach to address the potential disruption of established paradigms.
👊STRAIGHT TALK👊
Big Tech can do one thing no bank or financial institution can; that is to harness their digital prowess to provide financial inclusion to entire nations.
Their performance in bringing inclusion to India, China, Indonesia, and Kenya has been mostly breathtaking!
We should celebrate big tech’s advances in inclusion and emulate them in other nations, including developed markets, where inclusion is more of a challenge than most admit.
On the other edge of big tech’s sword is a ravenous appetite for private data, delight in using private algorithms, and their love of building walled gardens.
Look to Apple, WeChat, Alipay, and MPESA for the best example of walled gardens. All show that they do not play well with others unless forced by regulators!
Without strict regulatory oversight big tech would sell you, your data and anything else they could monetize in a heartbeat.
This isn’t new in China, where big tech has come under scathing criticism for its opacity and willingness to leverage credit.
I welcome big tech in finance, as long as regulators ride them hard so we are not all sold off in a “surveillance capitalism” nightmare.
How does a big tech bank account make you feel?
5. Gartner’s Top Ten Tech Trends for 2024!
Gartner’s Top 10 Tech Trends focuses on AI, which it slams as being at “the peak of inflated expectations.”
Gartner’s Top 10 unsurprisingly focuses on AI but keeps it real by slamming AI as being at "the peak of inflated expectations" in its famed “hype cycle” and is ready to slide into "the trough of disillusionment."
Don’t take the talk of disillusionment the wrong way. In Gartner’s hype cycle model, it is in this trough where the real work on AI needs to happen. And it will.
Gartner loves AI, which can “help your organization build and protect itself while generating value."
Because of this, it builds its top 10 around these three themes: Protect, Build, and Deliver.
👉TAKEAWAYS: Gartner’s Top 10 Tech Trends
🔷 PROTECT YOUR INVESTMENT
1. AI as Partner: AI Trust, Risk and Security Management (AI TRiSM)
2. Be Safe: Continuous Threat Exposure Management (CTEM)
3. Protect the Future: Sustainable Technology
🔷 RISE OF THE BUILDERS
4. Developer-Driven Self-Service: Platform Engineering
5. Accelerate Creation: AI-Augmented Development
6. Tailor Your Tailor’s Work: Industry Cloud Platforms
7. Optimize Decision-Making: Intelligent Applications
8. Power AND Responsibility: Democratized Generative AI
🔷 DELIVER THE VALUE
9. Push the Pioneers: Augmented Connected Workforce
10. Buyers With Byte(s): Machine Customers
👊STRAIGHT TALK👊
Gartner's Top 10 for 2014 are just what AI-obsessed companies need, and I give them credit for using their “bully pulpit” to help ground and focus institutional AI efforts.
Gartner isn’t being malicious by claiming that AI is at the peak of inflated expectations but being refreshingly honest.
More consultants need to share Gartner’s candor!
These three of the Top 10 caught my eye:
No 1: The AI TRiSM section nails it. No one can or should use AI without these systems in place. Gartner's prediction says it all: By 2026, enterprises that apply TRiSM controls to AI applications will increase the accuracy of their decision-making by eliminating 80% of faulty and illegitimate information.
No 4: Platform Engineering. This section caught my eye because it is precisely what banks strive for! While Garner focuses on software, the section is equally relevant for banks.
No 10: Machine Customers. When I talk about CBDC I always talk about a future where machines pay and state that these machines won’t use Visa or Mastercard! Gartners prediction is stunning: “By 2028, machine customers will render 20% of human-readable digital storefronts obsolete.”
These were my favorites.
What are yours?
6. China' Belt and Road Initiative turns 10 and "has brought significant benefits."
See the full long-form article:
Subscribing is 100% free, you’ll be glad you did!
In the unlikely event you don’t like my newsletter, click unsubscribe at any time to “invite danger!”
My work is entirely supported by reader gratitude, so if you enjoyed this newsletter, please do both of us a favor and subscribe or share it with someone. You can also follow me on Twitter or Linkedin for more. For more about what I do and my media appearances, check out richturrin.com
Rich Turrin is the international best-selling author of "Cashless - China's Digital Currency Revolution" and "Innovation Lab Excellence." He is number 4 on Onalytica's prestigious Top 50 Fintech Influencer list and an award-winning executive previously heading fintech teams at IBM following a twenty-year career in investment banking. Living in Shanghai for the last decade, Rich experienced China going cashless first-hand. Rich is an independent consultant whose views on China's astounding fintech developments are widely sought by international media and private clients.
Please check out my books on Amazon:
Cashless: HERE
Innovation Lab Excellence: HERE
How ethically are the audit teams? I know from my own experience, that "TÜV Rheinland" who certifies a lot of "Made in China" electrical stuff, has not really any inbuilt ethics. For them, it is all about the profit. If it pays, and they can get away with it, they'll do it. The "Ethik-Kommission" in Germany approved of many measures during the pandemic, which were questionable. Germany's most prominent philosopher Peter Sloterdijk called president Putin a liar recently, without supplying a shred of evidence. But we all know, how easy it is to find proof of lying for every single member of the top politicians in the west.
So, where shall all this ethics come from that would be used to audit the AIs?